Merced County, CA Housing Market Brief
county · CA · score computed October 2026
What is Merced County, CA’s Alpha Score?
The Alpha Score is a composite 0–100 index of market strength, a weighted blend of five dimensions. See the methodology.
Population band 5 of 5 (population 103,008–9,808,667) · comparable within its band
Where is Merced County, CA in its market cycle?
Merced County, CA is classified as Recovering — turning back up after a downturn. This is a classification of recent (1–12 month) momentum, not a price forecast.
What’s the forecast for Merced County, CA?
County-level forecasts are paused (since Oct 18, 2026). The new public-data model we built to replace them didn't pass our accuracy test, and we won't publish forecasts again until a model does.
Merced County, CA housing market data
| Metric | Value | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $429K | ▼ -1.4% | Redfin |
| Median Days on Market | 40 days | ▼ -18.4% | Redfin |
| Months of Supply | 3.3 | 0% | Redfin |
| Homes for Sale | 483 | ▼ -1.2% | Redfin |
| Homes Sold | 146 | ▼ -2% | Redfin |
| Median Price / Sq Ft | $250 | ▼ -2.6% | Redfin |
How has Merced County, CA’s Alpha Score moved?
Markets like Merced County, CA
- Multnomah County, OR, ORcounty21
- Santa Fe County, NM, NMcounty25
- Montgomery County, MD, MDcounty28
- Nevada County, CA, CAcounty23
- Clackamas County, OR, ORcounty25
- Monterey County, CA, CAcounty24
- San Bernardino County, CA, CAcounty28
- Solano County, CA, CAcounty22
- El Dorado County, CA, CAcounty21
- Amador County, CA, CAcounty25
Frequently asked questions
Is Merced County, CA a buyer's or seller's market?
In the scores computed October 2026, Merced County, CA is classified as a Deep Buyer's Market, based on its Alpha Score of 25 out of 100. The classification reflects current price, building, affordability, economic, and rental-yield conditions.
Are home prices rising or falling in Merced County, CA?
The median sale price in Merced County, CA is $429K, having fallen 1.4% over the past year, according to Redfin.
How affordable is Merced County, CA?
Merced County, CA scores 4 out of 100 on affordability — relatively unaffordable relative to local incomes and prevailing mortgage rates compared with other counties.
What's driving Merced County, CA's Alpha Score?
Merced County, CA's strongest dimension is Economic Strength (48/100) and its weakest is Affordability (4/100). The Alpha Score is a weighted blend of all five dimensions.
Want the live, interactive view of Merced County, CA? Open the full market dashboard — charts, ZIP-level drill-down, and watchlist tracking. Explore the map or read the methodology.