40Alpha

Merced County, CA Housing Market Brief

county · CA · as of August 2026

Buyer's

What is Merced County, CA’s Alpha Score?

The Alpha Score is a composite 0–100 index of market strength, a weighted blend of five dimensions. See the methodology.

Price Momentum20%
+2.149
Inventory Health25%
-8.152
Affordability20%
+1.211
Economic Strength20%
49
Rental Yield15%
-1.233

Where is Merced County, CA in its market cycle?

EmergingGrowingMaturePeakingDecliningRecovering

Merced County, CA is classified as Emerging early in its cycle, with scores climbing from a low base. This is a classification of recent (1–12 month) momentum, not a price forecast.

What’s the forecast for Merced County, CA?

Our model forecasts Merced County, CA’s home prices to rise about 2.5% over the next 12 months (high confidence).

This is a separate, forward-looking view — not the cycle classification above. See how past forecasts performed on the track record, or the full local forecast with its confidence range on the market page.

Merced County, CA housing market data

MetricValueYoY
Median Sale Price$414K-5.3%
Median Days on Market48 days▲ +50%
Months of Supply2.6-18.7%
Homes for Sale474-13.3%
Homes Sold191▲ +8.5%
Median Price / Sq Ft$268▲ +1.7%

How has Merced County, CA’s Alpha Score moved?

Now: 40
12-period trend
Median sale price · 12 mo

Markets like Merced County, CA

Frequently asked questions

Is Merced County, CA a buyer's or seller's market?

As of August 2026, Merced County, CA is classified as a Buyer's Market, based on its Alpha Score of 40 out of 100. The classification reflects current price, inventory, affordability, economic, and rental-yield conditions.

Are home prices rising or falling in Merced County, CA?

The median sale price in Merced County, CA is $414K, having fallen 5.3% over the past year.

How affordable is Merced County, CA?

Merced County, CA scores 11 out of 100 on affordability — relatively unaffordable relative to local incomes and prevailing mortgage rates compared with other counties.

What's driving Merced County, CA's Alpha Score?

Merced County, CA's strongest dimension is Inventory Health (52/100) and its weakest is Affordability (11/100). The Alpha Score is a weighted blend of all five dimensions.

Want the live, interactive view of Merced County, CA? Open the full market dashboard — charts, ZIP-level drill-down, and watchlist tracking. Explore the map or read the methodology.