Merced, CA metro area Housing Market Brief
metro · as of July 2026
What is Merced, CA metro area’s Alpha Score?
The Alpha Score is a composite 0–100 index of market strength, a weighted blend of five dimensions. See the methodology.
Where is Merced, CA metro area in its market cycle?
Merced, CA metro area is classified as Emerging — early in its cycle, with scores climbing from a low base. This is a classification of recent (1–12 month) momentum, not a price forecast.
What’s the forecast for Merced, CA metro area?
Our model forecasts Merced, CA metro area’s home prices to hold flat over the next 12 months (high confidence).
This is a separate, forward-looking view — not the cycle classification above. See how past forecasts performed on the track record, or the full local forecast with its confidence range on the market page.
Merced, CA metro area housing market data
| Metric | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $428K | ▲ +0.2% |
| Median Days on Market | 50 days | ▲ +6.4% |
| Months of Supply | 2.8 | ▼ -20% |
| Homes for Sale | 413 | ▼ -23.5% |
| Homes Sold | 150 | ▼ -2% |
| Median Price / Sq Ft | $267 | ▼ -0.4% |
How has Merced, CA metro area’s Alpha Score moved?
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Frequently asked questions
Is Merced, CA metro area a buyer's or seller's market?
As of July 2026, Merced, CA metro area is classified as a Balanced Market, based on its Alpha Score of 48 out of 100. The classification reflects current price, inventory, affordability, economic, and rental-yield conditions.
Are home prices rising or falling in Merced, CA metro area?
The median sale price in Merced, CA metro area is $428K, having held roughly steady over the past year.
How affordable is Merced, CA metro area?
Merced, CA metro area scores 10 out of 100 on affordability — relatively unaffordable relative to local incomes and prevailing mortgage rates compared with other metros.
What's driving Merced, CA metro area's Alpha Score?
Merced, CA metro area's strongest dimension is Inventory Health (64/100) and its weakest is Affordability (10/100). The Alpha Score is a weighted blend of all five dimensions.
Want the live, interactive view of Merced, CA metro area? Open the full market dashboard — charts, ZIP-level drill-down, and watchlist tracking. Explore the map or read the methodology.