Merced, CA metro area Housing Market Brief
metro · CA · score computed October 2026
What is Merced, CA metro area’s Alpha Score?
The Alpha Score is a composite 0–100 index of market strength, a weighted blend of five dimensions. See the methodology.
Population band 5 of 5 (population 278,335–19,798,537) · comparable within its band
Where is Merced, CA metro area in its market cycle?
Merced, CA metro area is classified as Recovering — turning back up after a downturn. This is a classification of recent (1–12 month) momentum, not a price forecast.
What’s the forecast for Merced, CA metro area?
Metro-level forecasts are paused (since Oct 18, 2026). The new public-data model we built to replace them didn't pass our accuracy test, and we won't publish forecasts again until a model does.
Merced, CA metro area housing market data
| Metric | Value | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $429K | ▼ -1.4% | Redfin |
| Median Days on Market | 40 days | ▼ -18.4% | Redfin |
| Months of Supply | 3.3 | 0% | Redfin |
| Homes for Sale | 483 | ▼ -1.2% | Redfin |
| Homes Sold | 146 | ▼ -2% | Redfin |
| Median Price / Sq Ft | $250 | ▼ -2.6% | Redfin |
How has Merced, CA metro area’s Alpha Score moved?
Markets like Merced, CA metro area
- Sebastian, FL metro area, FLmetro26
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- Washington, DC metro area, DCmetro17
- Seattle, WA metro area, WAmetro19
- Eugene, OR metro area, ORmetro27
- Modesto, CA metro area, CAmetro26
- Mount Vernon, WA metro area, WAmetro26
- Portland, OR metro area, ORmetro27
- San Rafael, CA metro area, CAmetro14
- Salinas, CA metro area, CAmetro17
Frequently asked questions
Is Merced, CA metro area a buyer's or seller's market?
In the scores computed October 2026, Merced, CA metro area is classified as a Deep Buyer's Market, based on its Alpha Score of 22 out of 100. The classification reflects current price, building, affordability, economic, and rental-yield conditions.
Are home prices rising or falling in Merced, CA metro area?
The median sale price in Merced, CA metro area is $429K, having fallen 1.4% over the past year, according to Redfin.
How affordable is Merced, CA metro area?
Merced, CA metro area scores 8 out of 100 on affordability — relatively unaffordable relative to local incomes and prevailing mortgage rates compared with other metros.
What's driving Merced, CA metro area's Alpha Score?
Merced, CA metro area's strongest dimension is Economic Strength (51/100) and its weakest is Price Momentum (7/100). The Alpha Score is a weighted blend of all five dimensions.
Want the live, interactive view of Merced, CA metro area? Open the full market dashboard — charts, ZIP-level drill-down, and watchlist tracking. Explore the map or read the methodology.